Summary — What Nobody Says
Four revisions since January 2026. New data confirms the essentials, nuances the timeline, and reveals massive hidden costs.
Stefan-Boltzmann non-negotiable. Starcloud-1 overheating confirmed. Radiation: actual 5%/yr. Physical law is non-negotiable.
Baseline 3:1, theoretical parity +5% under 3 conditions, hidden operational costs erase the Economist parity.
99.99% SLA physically incompatible. Enterprise market excluded. CLOUD Act blocks EU clients. RTO 6–18 months = zero enterprise contracts.
DO-260D mandatory, 144,404 Starlink maneuvers/6 months, LIDAR/FMCW sensors, $75–640 Bn in costs absent from the business case.
RAND Corp error on optical pointing confirms cost underestimation. Nuclear SMR: viable in 15–20 years only.
KSAT responds with "Hyper" (2025). $62 Bn ground station market threatened. Inter-satellite hub = only short-term viable business case.
Verdict Evolution
Four progressive revisions since January 2026, each bringing new field data.
| Revision | Cost ratio | Key variable | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|
| January 2026 (initial) | 4:1 | Stefan-Boltzmann + radiation | Not viable current tech |
| Revision 2 — March 2026 | 3:1 / 1.05:1 opt. | Starship + 3 conditions | Conditional |
| Revision 3 — March 2026 | 3:1 to 4:1 + SLA | Impossible SLA + optical error | Premium market excluded |
| Revision 4 — March 2026 | 1.3:1 to 2.8:1 opt. | Hidden operational costs | Economist parity invalid |
Physics no longer says absolute NO. Economics says MAYBE under conditions. SLA says NO to the premium market. Hidden costs (ADS-B, debris, fuel, links) erase theoretical parity. The only short-term viable market is satellite edge inference and the relay hub for defense/sovereignty clients.