SPACE-ADS-B
L'aviation a son ADS-B. Le maritime a son AIS. L'espace n'a rien pour the objets sous 10 cm — the most lethal, the most numerous, the only ones that trigger the cascade. Every manoeuvring satellite today navigates at 7 km/s through a cloud of 1 200 000 fragments invisibthe, sans transpondeur, sans protocole commun, with no real-time catalogue. Nous gérons l'espace comme l'aviation de 1960. The Hormuz Strait Crisis — Lloyd's retire ses polices avant le premier tir — demonstrates how a critical infrastructure collapses through insurance defiance. The same mechanism will apply tomorrow to orbit: no insurer will cover a constellation in an uncatalogued debris environment.
Le mécanisme Ormuz se réplique en orbite
On 28 February 2026, Lloyd's of London cancelled maritime insurance policies for the Strait of Hormuz avant qu'un seul missile ne touche un tanker commercial. The threat alone paralysed 21% of global oil. This mechanism is reproducible in orbital space — with a fundamental difference: contaminated orbits remain contaminated for 50 to 200 years.
⚠️ IADC 2025 Simulations — Density increase trend confirmed
IADC (Inter-Agency Space Debris Coordination Committee) simulations confirm: even with zero additional launches, collisions will increase debris density at certain LEO altitudes. The Iranian crisis adds 3 simultaneous vectors: operational GPS jamming, designation of Starlink as enemy military infrastructure, and pre-existing orbital densification.
